the challenging next 12 months

the fed chair\’s econ outlook…slow steady challenges

this FEB/MAR/APRIL you could feel the optimism in the air.  wall street activity & the dow “said” it was all looking good.
the on-the-street reality is somewhat different:  stubborn un-employment, continued mixed picture in housing, caution in consumer spending, continued productivity + slack in manufactiuring capacity due to 2005-7 ramp ups…and outside of the “money center banks”, we have banking instability & credit tightness.   state revenue gaps are next issue.
in pulsing CEOs, i’ve seen a few threads:
–   in manufacturing and in construction, capacity slack and desire to preserve key employee skills is driving below cost bidding.
–   gov’t related work is still a dominate source of work
–   deep concerns about access to credit in “normal projects”…banks are just now re-entering…prompting companies to think through how “they bring their own financing to projects…”
–   cash mgmt still upper most on their minds
several huge questions:
–   where & what do you invest in with “confidence”?
–   where will job growth come from?  what societal implications are there from the systematic un-employment?
–   implications of a “slow” credit economy, especially for the small biz sector and construction/infrastructure projects? 
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~ by dypchen on June 8, 2010.

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